Flu Pandemic Awareness Week

[Lucas Gonzalez]

Hi friends,

I've been away from the list - busy, with you on my mind.

I come back to share the following:

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Flu Pandemic Awareness Week - October 3rd-9th, 2005

http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2005/10/pfaw-pandemic-flu-awareness-week.html
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2005/10/important-idea-for-local-planners.html

>>>
The Reveres are public health people. The great challenge for global
public health at the beginning of the twenty first century is coping
with epidemic infectious disease in a highly interconnected world. It
is a task we have to do now without any significant leadership,
locally, nationally, internationally, professionally. So it's time for
a new model of public health planning.

Pandemics have two main consequences. One is medical or biological, the
one that gets all the attention. Even more important, though, are how
people react. We can work together to get through a bad patch, the
proverbial neighbor helping neighbor. Or we can retreat and separate.
Everyone for themselves.
>>>

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My own short summary:
- There's a virus (H5N1) that causes flu in birds.
- It has spread to several countries and animal species.  It won't go
away easily or at all.
- It has learned to cause disease in humans.  So far, at least 100+
diseased, 50+ deaths, but there may be cases without symptoms, making
these figures inacurate.  So far, as far as we know, it goes from human
to human with great difficulty or not at all.
- There are indications it is "learning" to go from human to human: it
kills less, outbreaks last longer, and there is more genetic
variability.  It might learn gradually (through acummulated mutations)
or abruptly (through recombination with a virus that already knows how
to go from human to human).
- Production of a specific vaccine would start after Day 1, so zero
availability for 6-8 months, and scarcity from then onwards. 
Currently, producers make 300 trivalent doses a year; so after the
first 6-8 months they could make monovalent shots for 450 million
people each year (x 2 shots because the immune system needs the double
shot for new flu viruses).  Experts are unhappy with the technology and
are fighting for improvements.
- Antiviral drugs are expensive, only for specific situations, and the
virus may turn to be resistant, thus making the antivirals useless.
- Apropriate masks are only recommended in specific situations.
- At least in normal flu, people can pass on the infection even when
they are not showing symptoms yet.
- If one in three falls ill along several weeks (for each local
outbreak) and one in 50 diseased die (all figures are guesses, as no
one can really make an accurate prediction), then that would mean
"social disruption".  Fatalities figures vary wildly (5 to 150 million
or more) and what's left is the need to prepare.
- A small number of governments in the world have plans, which in most
cases don't deal with the "community preparedness" or "social
disruption" part.  Health-care systems, where they exist at all, may
have no resources if their own workers are ill.
- "Just in time" economies would probably have a hard time if
"disruption" means "much less travel".
- Could "awareness (week)" mean preventive action from governments? 
Who knows.
- For more details and action, there's the http://www.fluwikie.com

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So what does this have to do with Open Space?  I wonder.

Lucas


		
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