Leveling the Playing Field

[Heidi and Dan Chay]

Hi Toni,

Your message in two parts (informational + inspirational) was interesting to
me.

The first (informational) part refers to a book, "Black Gold Hot Gold."  In
my searches, I couldn't find the title on Amazon or Powell's bookstores.  A
google search took me to the following website which referred to an e-book
of the same title, with the subtitle: "The Rise of Fascism in the American
Energy Business."  Is this the book from which your material came?
http://www.brojon.com/index.html

The reason I looked is because in my initial reaction I found the first two
sentences of the material you quoted curious. It didn't fit with information
I've been studying off and on for the last couple of years:

<<
In the book "Black Gold Hot Gold" the oil expected to flow from the vast
oilfields under the Russian Caspian Sea, discovered about 20 years ago
remains undrilled and untapped. That field contains about 500 years worth of
oil at present world consumption rates.
>>

I'm fairly confident oil in the Caspian Region was discovered more than 20
years ago.  Published data suggests that 60-70% of the world's known oil
occurs in little over 300 giant fields. The discovery of such fields peaked
in the 1960s.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/983fig4.gif
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/983fig5.gif
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/camdisc.htm

According to EIA, proven reserves for the entire Caspian region are
estimated at 18-35 billion barrels -- and in estimates of total
"resources" -- about which EIA can be wildly optimistic -- there might be
200-235 billion barrels.
 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspian.html

To base future thinking on "present world consumption" rates is a bit
misleading in a market economy with assumptions of growth.  Most economic
decisions are based on assumptions of continued average growth of 1-3%
annually, or more. The doubling period of 2% growth is about 35 years.  I
guess that's okay.  BP uses "present world consumption" rates on their site,
too.

By 1999 already we were consuming globally 22 billion barrels per year (or
26 if you include oil condensates as I understand).  At that rate, i.e., not
assuming growth, 235 billion barrels of the Caspian region would last less
than a dozen years, not more than 500.  And even if we could instantly
"prove" up on 235 billion barrels, and if we could pipe it to capitalist
economies where most fossil fuel energy is consumed, mathmatical analysis
shows it still would delay global peak oil production only a little.

According to a scenario being drawn by petroleum geologists with access to
the best oil information in the world (Petroconsultants' database and
others),  world global oil production will peak somewhere between next year
and 2009, with most estimates closer to 2005.  After global oil production
peaks, we will be living in a world increasingly defined by petroleum fuel
scarcity (and probably still more and sharper elbows).  After peak, total
global oil production could fall at 3% or more per year.  Better petroleum
extraction technologies actually often serve to increase decline rates. Gas
declines are "like a cliff."  We now find one barrel of oil globally for
every barrel we consume.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm

The most recently published book I've read about impending world oil
shortage came out last month. It is titled "Hubbert's Peak," by Kenneth S.
Deffeyes, Professor Emeritus at Princeton, petroleum geologist and second
generation oil man.  Deffeyes writes on page 149:

<<
This much is certain:  no initiative put in place starting today can have a
substantial effect on the peak production year.  No Caspian Sea exploration,
no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy
projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for
the remaining oil.  At least, let's hope that the war is waged with cash
instead of with nuclear weapons.
<<

By two methods, Deffeyes estimates a peak production year of 2003.
Technology corucopists are banking on largely unproven substitutes
(particularly at scale) and unbuilt infrastructures to replace the oil and
gas that fuels our transportation systems and provides feedstock for
fertilizers, pesticides, and petroleum-based commodities. Many of the
so-called substitutes we hear about in the mainstream press evidently
actually provide a negative energy return on energy invested.  Fuel cells,
methane hydrates and ethanol (biomass), for example
(http://www.hubbertpeak.com/youngquist/altenergy.htm).

If I give this dismal energy scenario, -- maybe combined with a variation on
war scenario, or not --  some credence, the second part of your message,
Toni, also takes on new meaning for me, particularly "holding and creating
the intention of peace," "conceptual integrity," and "a vision of a world
united."

I assume that the "shifts" required of us to achieve your beautiful vision
in an increasingly difficult world will require of most of us heightened
awareness, good will, openness, construcive connectivity and creativity,
willingness to test our assumptions, true interest to understand, and
ability to learn and change.  This, I think, is partly why "Open" space
technology is so important and why I enjoy community on this list.  Even
more so, if constructive change is demanded of us at faster rates of change
than to which we are accustomed.

Does any of this make sense or resonate with you or others?

Best wishes,

Dan
http://www.learning-communities.com

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