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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Dear OSLIST, <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>There are many ways by which people of different opinions
can come to a consensus. On non-contentious topics, there might be near unanimity
and it’s easy enough; on something rather more controversial, it should
be possible with a bit of give-and-take to come to a common consensus; and on
very divisive subjects, as for example in disputes on sovereignty, all
concerned may have to just settle for their best possible compromise.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>So, how can this be done? In consensus politics, (one
of many methodologies), the first step is to allow all options to be ‘on
the table’; (in a word, it is essential to avoid the trap of asking <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>closed</span></i> questions, and not least because
these often lead on to a majority vote, which is a highly divisive tool).
The question, then, should never be, “Are you Serb or Croat, Hutu or
Tutsi, Georgian or Ossetian?” and so on. Nor should it be, “Do
you want ‘this’, yes or no?” That was the question which
Bush and Blair asked on <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
in the <span style='font-variant:small-caps'>un</span> Security Council in Oct
2003: Resolution 1441. Instead, the question should have been <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>open</span></i>: “What shall we do about <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>?”
Similarly, in ethnic disputes, the question should again be open: it is not, or
should not be, a question of, “<st1:country-region w:st="on">Croatia</st1:country-region>,
independence, yes or no?” or even “<st1:country-region w:st="on">Croatia</st1:country-region>
independent or stay in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Yugoslavia</st1:country-region></st1:place>?”
The question should have been open: “What should the status of <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Croatia</st1:place></st1:country-region> be, and
how should she relate to her immediate neighbours?” <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Now in theory, if the subject is contentious, and if society
is plural and democratic, then there will inevitably be more than two options ‘on
the table’. Let them all be there (as long as they comply with the <span
style='font-variant:small-caps'>un</span> Declaration on Human Rights).
Then, let the debate commence, and participants should be able to ask
questions, seek clarifications, propose amendments, or whatever. At the
same time, a team of consensors should keep the list of options ‘on the
table’ (or on the computer screen) up to date. If a new idea is
proposed, it may be added; if two ideas are very similar, they may be
composited; and if one idea is no longer deemed wanted, by everybody, including
its original proposer, then it may be deleted.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>If, at the end of the debate, there is only one option left,
this may be taken to represent the verbal consensus. If, however, a number
of options remain, let us say five of them, options, <b><i><span
style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>A, B, C, D</span></i></b> and <b><i><span
style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>E,</span></i></b> then it may be
advisable to go to a consensus vote, a vote in which they will be asked to
state their preferences on these options. Then, in the count, preferences
mean points; and the option with the most points is the winner.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Thus, to win, an option needs lots of high preferences <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>and</span></i> very few low preferences: the outcome
depends upon literally everybody! This means, during the debate, that if I
want my option to win, I should talk not only to my supporters, but also to my
erstwhile opponents. If I can persuade s/he who was intending to give my
option a 5<sup>th</sup> preference, to now give it a 3<sup>rd</sup> or even a 2<sup>nd</sup>
preference, that will be a huge help. In other words, the very prospect
of a consensus vote encourages all to engage in dialogue, or even ‘polylogue’.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Before we come to the count on these five options, let us
first consider a purely hypothetical instance. 100 voters. If they
all give option <b><i><span style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>D</span></i></b>,
say, a 1<sup>st</sup> preference, <b><i><span style='font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic'>D</span></i></b> will get the highest possible score, (100 x
5 =) 500. If, also, they give option <b><i><span style='font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic'>A</span></i></b> their 5<sup>th</sup> preference, <b><i><span
style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>A</span></i></b> will get a final
score of only (100 x 1 =) 100 points. And if, again, 100 voters give
option <b><i><span style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>B</span></i></b>
a 3<sup>rd</sup> preference, or if 50 voters give option <b><i><span
style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>E</span></i></b> a 2<sup>nd</sup> preference
and the other 50 voters give <b><i><span style='font-weight:bold;font-style:
italic'>E</span></i></b> a 4<sup>th</sup> preference, then both <b><i><span
style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>B</span></i></b> and <b><i><span
style='font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>E</span></i></b> will get a score of
(100 x 3 =) 300 or (50 x 4 + 50 x 2 =) 300.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>In practice, life will probably be a little more
varied. But basically, all five options will get a positive result;
furthermore, something(s) will be above the mean, and something(s) else
below. Consensus voting always gives an outcome.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>If the winner gets a very high score, between 450 and 500,
then we may talk of near unanimity. If the winner gets 400-450, then that’s
a consensus. If it’s 350-400, that’s probably just a best
possible compromise. And if it’s anything less than 350, then
obviously some or all of the other options are at about the same level, so maybe
it’s better to treat the vote as a straw poll and to resume the debate.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Now there may be some voters who do not want to cast a full
slate of five preferences. There might even be some who prefer to
abstain. Democracy, however, is for everybody, so the mathematics of the voting
system should actually encourage all concerned to participate to whatever
extent they feel able. In consensus voting, then, the voter who casts <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>m </span></i>preferences gives his favourite just <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>m</span></i> points, (and his 2<sup>nd</sup> preference
<i><span style='font-style:italic'>m-1</span></i> points, etc.).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>So he who casts only one preference gives his favourite just
1 point;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>She who casts two options gives her favourite 2 points (and
her 2<sup>nd</sup> preference 1 point);<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>He who casts three options gives his favourite 3 points (his
2<sup>nd</sup> preference 2 points, and his 3<sup>rd</sup> preference 1 point);
but best of all, therefore, <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>she who casts five preferences gives her favourite the
maximum 5 points, (and her 2<sup>nd</sup> preference 4 points, and so on).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>The difference, then, is always 1 point.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>In theory, if everyone states not only their favourite option
but also their compromise options, it will be possible to identify the
collective compromise. This is the basis of the consensus vote, the
technical name for which is the Modified Borda Count.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>We first used it in an exercise in Belfast in 1986: we got
both sides to come together – politicians, paramilitaries, priests,
police and the public, over 200 in all – and this was still 8 years
before the ceasefire; we sat in concentric circles; we paused for silence; no
one spoke for too long; all options were accepted, so everyone respected the
right of others to have different aspirations; and then, at the end of the day,
with 10 options on the table, we moved to a consensus vote, and thus we found a
common consensus.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Since then, the methodology has been used quite a few times,
both here and abroad, in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Bosnia</st1:place></st1:country-region>
for example, with electronic multi-preference voting; and so far anyway, it has
always worked.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Best regards,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Peter Emerson</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Director, The de Borda Institute</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><font size=2
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>36 Ballysillan
Road</span></font></st1:address></st1:Street><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><font size=2
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Belfast</span></font></st1:place></st1:City><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> BT14 7QQ</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>028 90 711795</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>078 377 17979</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><a href="mailto:pemerson@deborda.org"><font size=2 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>pemerson@deborda.org</span></font></a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><a href="http://www.deborda.org"><font size=2 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>www.deborda.org</span></font></a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>The Borda count "is the best protection ever devised
from the tyranny of the majority." Professor Sir Michael Dummett.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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