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<P>Hi, Folks</P>
<P>Below is some info from a stock market newsletter I receive, about a possible
upcoming mood shift toward anger, fear, intolerance and exclusion in American
society and possibly other societies as well. The theorist is well known
and respected and often but not always correct. Although he is
predicting these things as though they are likely to happen no matter what, I
think that they are just one possibility, due to the effects on society's mood
from the war against terrorism and the Bear market. I think the more
aware we are of the dangers of a societal mood shift in these directions, the
more chance we have to "head it off at the pass" and stop these things from
occurring, or at least begin to heal and change these things if they do
occur. Would be interested in ideas from folks here on how to do either of
these things-- stop this mood shift and/or heal and change it
constructively. </P>
<P>Robert Prechter, whose Elliott Wave Theorist Letter is highly respected,
provides an analysis of social trends and mood changes. The Elliott
Wave Theory basically subscribes to the idea that investment trends and economic
trends are produced by mood changes on the part of investors or people. These
mood changes precede changes in the markets or the economy. It’s not the other
way around. His book: </FONT><B><FONT color=#000000 face="Times New Roman"
size=3>"The Wave Principal of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of
Socionomics" </B></FONT><FONT color=#000000 face="Times New Roman" size=3>has
the thesis that changes in social mood cause and therefore precede changes in
the character of social events. For more information and reading on this very
interesting subject, go to <A href="http://www.elliottwave.com">w</FONT><FONT
color=#0000ff face="Times New Roman">ww.elliottwave.co</FONT><FONT color=#000000
face="Times New Roman" size=3>m</A>.</P>
<P>In 1995, Robert Prechter wrote:</P></FONT><FONT color=#000000
face="Times New Roman" size=3>
<P><EM>"The coming trend of negative social psychology will be characterized
primarily by polarization between and among various perceived groups, whether
political, ideological, religious, geographical, racial or economic. The result
will be a net trend toward anger, fear, intolerance, <FONT color=#000000
face="Times New Roman" size=3></EM><EM>disagreement and exclusion, as opposed to
the bull market years, whose net trend has been toward benevolence, confidence,
tolerance, agreement and inclusion. Such a sentiment change typically brings
conflict in many forms, and evidence of it will be visible in all types of
social organizations. Political manifestation will include protectionism in
trade matters, a polarized and vocal electorate, separatist movements,
xenophobia, citizen-government clashes, the dissolution of old alliances and
parties, and the emergence of a radical new one.</EM></P>
<P><EM>Xenophobia will be practiced regardless of people’s generally good
intentions, because fear and hatred become pervasive in major bear markets
regardless of whether or not they are justified. There will also the a
danger that governments will impose police state-type controls as a consequence
of the bear market."</EM></P></FONT><FONT color=#000000 face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<P><EM>But investors need not put their heads in the sand like an ostrich, as
there will be terrific opportunities. In fact, one could be right around the
corner. A bear market in the NASDAQ which started early last year gave us some
good rallies in between. They were tradable and you could have made profits of
50% or more in specific issues during those rallies.</EM></P>
<P><EM>Now if we believe that we are in the early stages of a long decline in
the market, it stands to reason that such bear market rallies will be even more
powerful, and will last longer. In fact, many people will call them a new bull
market until they finally fail to exceed the prior high and the market retreats
again. And during such upmoves, big profits will be made by those who are ready
and able to participate. During the next declining phase, which may last many
months, great profits can be made by short selling.</EM></P>
<P><EM>At the end of Bob Prechter’s latest newsletter, he offers his book
(mentioned above) at half-price, just to get the message out. I know that at
that price the publisher does not make any profit. I know Bob is a highly
intelligent and highly ethical person. Take him up on the offer.</EM></P><FONT
size=2><FONT face=Arial>
<P>BTW, both this and the piece reprinted from another source re:what to do in a
hijacking, were from the same stock market newsletter, which also has very good
guidance on stock market trends. I'm not going to advertise it here, but
if anyone is interested in hearing about it, please e-mail me privately at <A
href="mailto:julie@pinefish.com">julie@pinefish.com</A> </P>
<P>Julie</FONT></FONT></FONT></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>