Critical role of the theme

Lucas Gonzalez lgs0a at yahoo.es
Tue May 25 02:26:07 PDT 2004


> Epidemics tend to grow slowly at the beginning, then faster, then
> slower again.
> Do you think OST has a ceiling in this regard?  Why?

--- "Pannwitz, Michael M" <mmpanne at boscop.de> escribió:
> am curious why you have that question.
> Especially under the condition that epidemics have the tendency to
> wipe out the infected.

Luckily, not so!  Some specialists in viri say the most successful viri
are those that (that word again) "empower" their "users".  Maybe a
virus helped transmit some genetic difference (small but important)
between apes and humans (just a hipothetical example).

There are (at least) three important features:
- effect on the user
- delay between contagion and effect
- new infections from each infected

OST has the effects many people in this list know well.

The delay ... flu makes people ill immediately, some hepatitis are
slower to show up.  With slower-to-show infections, one infected person
can infect others without "resistance", as it goes on unnoticed.  Kind
of "pst! heard of the Law of 2 feet? pass it on!".

The "new infections from each infected" is an average number: if this
number is large, then the epidemic takes a big population quickly.  But
not all the population: just those who are "ready to be infected".

I don't know exactly why I asked whatever I asked.  I guess I'm
wondering what the "resistence" to "infection" is.  Maybe the
"epidemic" can only go so far?  Or do you think we are all (more or
less) "susceptible"?  How do people turn from "non susceptible" to
"susceptible" (and the other way round)?

Sometimes a person needs more than one "exposure" to become "infected".
Sometimes one virus "facilitates" the next different one.

I don't know if these questions make any sense "here".  You see, if OST
has these dramatic effects, I would like to guess if it can "scale" (be
applicable for a large number of people in the world), how much it
scales, and if it doesn't then what.

Just wondering, really. :)

And I think I know what one kind of reply will be: "the best way to
know is to try!"  But many here have already tried, that's why I ask.

Again, thanks!

Lucas



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