wisdom of crowds

[kerry napuk]

Hi

Just read a review of a new book called THE
WISDOM OF CROWDS by James Surowiecki (Little,
Brown, £16.99).

His central concept is that "under the right
circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent,
and are often smarter than the smartest people in
them."   So-called experts do not get it right
even when they ought to when compared to groups.

Surowiecki argues that correct decisions from
complex arguments are at their best when arrived
at collectively.  He sites four preconditions for
intelligent group-based decision-making:  First,
that there should be a diversity of opinion;
second, each person should be "independent;"
third, the group offers "decentralisation;" and,
fourth, there must be a mechanism for turning
individual judgment into a collective decision.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Cheers

Kerry
Open Futures
Edinburgh
www.openfutures.com

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